Qwen3.5-4B Deep-Advantage MOPD
The one idea you need
Imagine a strong all-round apprentice and two specialists standing at the same half-finished job. The deep specialist is copied only when separate trial runs show that it finishes that exact job better than both the apprentice and the other specialist.
The question
Can carefully chosen lessons from the deep specialist improve one already blended small model without sacrificing its faster skills?
What we found
No. The deep specialist really was the better teacher on selected states, and copying it worked slightly better than copying the wrong teacher or training on matched non-winning states. But after four rounds the resulting model still scored below the deep specialist, below a simple weight blend, and far below giving the original blend eight tries. Broad retention and untouched transfer survived, so this is a failure to add capability rather than a general collapse.
Why it matters
Finding the right lesson is not enough if the training update does not survive in the deployed model. The next experiment should prove a tiny update directly in deployment precision before spending on another large self-distillation run; smarter two-teacher routing comes only after that works.
On this page
Results at a glance 3
How to read
Two short bars show the average unrelated-logit movement and the relative loss of output uncertainty on 20 exact before-and-after probes. Smaller is safer; both are far below one tenth.
Takeaway → The small pilot genuinely cleared its safety gate, but the later sealed evaluation shows that local training safety did not imply a stronger deployed model.
Data table
| literal locality diagnostic | observed |
|---|---|
| centered non-target logit drift | 0.0276 |
| relative entropy drop | 0.0311 |
Numbers from experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/analysis/locality_pilot.json
Technical framing
Five MOPD updates stayed local on exact probes — The frozen 15-deep/5-soup pilot passed every registered check. Exact target loss also improved from 0.012929 to 0.011704. Each diagnostic uses one midpoint token for each of the 20 consumed units, so this authorizes four-round MOPD but is not a capability result or a claim of global token-level invariance.
How to read
Each block has two positive bars: deep's score edge over the starting blend and over the quick specialist. Taller is better, but merely staying above zero in both untouched blocks is the key replication test.
Takeaway → Deep's local teaching advantage was real and repeated, but the completed experiment shows that this training recipe could not turn it into a model stronger than deep itself.
Data table
| untouched qualification block | deep minus starting soup | deep minus quick specialist |
|---|---|---|
| fresh block 1 | 0.165 | 0.2 |
| fresh block 2 | 0.122 | 0.142 |
Numbers from experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/analysis/route_qualification.json
Technical framing
Deep advantage replicated on both fresh blocks — Deep was selected from separate continuation samples on 28 and 26 states. Both audit contrasts are positive in both blocks; pooled one-sided 95% lower bounds are +0.1230 versus soup and +0.1534 versus quick. The subsequent five-update locality gate passed; full capability training is now authorized.
How to read
Each group has a tall 60-unit capability bar and a shorter 20-unit reminder bar. Only the source of the 60 capability lessons changes: verified deep wins, matched places where deep did not win, or the wrong specialist on the verified-win states.
Takeaway → The matched arms reveal a small benefit from choosing the right state and teacher, while the source and sampling losses show that this benefit did not become capability installation.
Data table
| training arm | routed capability units | shared frozen-soup anchors |
|---|---|---|
| deep-advantage MOPD | 60 | 20 |
| matched non-advantage MOPD | 60 | 20 |
| wrong-teacher MOPD | 60 | 20 |
Numbers from experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/configs/default.yaml and reports/preregistration.md
Technical framing
Every routed training arm gets the same frozen dose — Pre-run design chart. The proposed method gets no dose advantage: each MOPD arm consumes 60 capability states plus the identical 20 starting-soup anchors per round. The controls change only whether deep truly had a measured advantage there, or which teacher supplies the target.
In the author’s words from the Report · “Results”
Deep's independent audit advantage over soup was +0.16499/+0.12205, pooled +0.14209 with one-sided 95% lower bound +0.12297. Against quick it was +0.20003/+0.14203, pooled +0.16910 with lower bound +0.15337. The minimum support, both block signs, and both uncertainty gates passed. The diagnostic quick route also passed on these fresh blocks: 29/18 routed states, quick-over-soup +0.08198/+0.17054 and pooled lower bound +0.10008; quick-over-deep +0.05378/+0.27883 and lower bound +0.12129. This does not change the locked deep-only treatment. It strengthens the case that a later two-teacher attempt should use the preregistered cross-fitted direct-advantage predictor and a third untouched block rather than reusing these outcomes. … Read the full result →
Overview
Status
Fresh qualification, exact-logit locality, three four-round integrations, and all control-construction gates passed, but the two-block terminal analysis rejects capability installation. Primary seed 42 trails deep by -0.006845 joint, trails soup by -0.001300, trails soup75 by -0.003706, and trails soup best-of-eight by -0.169239; seeds 43/44 also trail deep. Retention and transfer pass, while correct-teacher MOPD beats wrong-teacher and non-advantage controls only modestly. The frozen decision emitted stop_before_benchmark_cli; no benchmark was opened. This is a new result-bearing successor to qwen35_4b_same_prefix_advantage_routing, not an extension of its terminal result.
Research Program
- Primary program:
agentic_breadth_installation. - Supporting programs:
posttraining_and_adaptation,evidence_conditioned_selection,benchmark_generalization, andreliability_and_safety. - Closest duplicate:
qwen35_4b_same_prefix_advantage_routing. - Program question: can the first independently qualified same-prefix source signal—deep—be installed into the strongest joint 4B checkpoint without erasing its quick behavior or losing to deployment-time routing/sampling?
Question
On fresh states from the immutable 40% quick / 60% deep soup, does the exact strict three-policy rule again identify a replicated deep continuation advantage? If so, can corrected top-50 MOPD on only those deep-selected states produce one checkpoint that beats quick, deep, the soup, visible routing, matched mechanism controls, and verifier-best soup best-of-8?
Hypothesis
The predecessor isolated a real conditional deep advantage but could not test MOPD because quick was a required second source. The joint soup already carries quick behavior. Applying deep pressure only where deep strictly beats both quick and the current student should add the missing local residual while the 25% frozen-soup anchor preserves the existing mixture. If routing is causal, the update should beat both deep MOPD on matched non-advantage states and quick MOPD on the exact selected states.
Setup
- Model: only
Qwen/Qwen3.5-4Bat revision851bf6e806efd8d0a36b00ddf55e13ccb7b8cd0a. - Initial student: the predecessor's immutable explicit 40/60 composite, SHA-256
04610723f3f46d0a094ae0e5bc1a491bb6ad9e0fb6c8a84417dfe5e527f15b50. - Source policies: the same explicit
quick_blendanddeep_apexcomposites. - Substrate: copied 14-family procedural gym; 12 families may supply updates, while
brineworkandspindleremain transfer-only. - Qualification: two new 192-state blocks, four selection plus four disjoint audit branches for quick, deep, and student.
- Frozen route: deep is selected only when its selection mean is strictly above both quick and student. Ties and all other states abstain. There is no gain magnitude threshold.
- Gate: at least 16 deep routes per block; deep-minus-student and deep-minus-quick audit macros positive in both blocks; pooled one-sided 95% lower bounds above zero for both contrasts.
- Update: four online rounds, each with 60 consume-once deep capability units and 20 frozen-soup anchors; five updates must first pass exact-logit locality.
- Controls: matched non-advantage-state deep MOPD, wrong-teacher quick MOPD on the exact selected states, off-policy best-deep-continuation SFT, fixed parameter soups, source checkpoints, no-update soup, visible routing, and soup best-of-8.
- Hidden-label boundary: verifier outcomes select training states only. They are never rendered to the model or used at deployment.
Run
CPU/scientific smoke:
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --smokeReached stages are explicit and resumable:
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage model-smoke
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage verify-student
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage route-qualify
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage locality
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage integrate --seed 42
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage integrate --seed 43
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage integrate --seed 44
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage controls
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage confirm
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --stage benchmarkEvery command after smoke requires an immutable design receipt. A failed gate forbids later stages. Model stages re-exec the orchestrator under the pinned .venv before dependency-bearing validators load; a missing training runtime therefore fails before any stage work rather than after producing an artifact.
Decision Rule
The seed-42 final merged checkpoint must have a positive joint mean, positive one-sided 95% lower bound, and positive means in both sealed blocks versus quick, deep, soup, visible routing, every matched control, and every parameter soup. Its quick and deep strata must each exceed the better source in each block; seeds 43/44 must point positively versus both sources and soup; retention and transfer regressions may not exceed 0.02; and greedy joint performance must beat verifier-best soup best-of-8. Tiny replicated gains count. Large unstable gains do not.
Qualification Result
The strict selector routed 54/384 fresh states to deep (28 and 26 by block). On disjoint audit branches, deep beat soup by +0.1650 and +0.1220 in the two blocks (pooled +0.1421, one-sided 95% lower bound +0.1230) and beat quick by +0.2000 and +0.1420 (pooled +0.1691, lower bound +0.1534). Every frozen support/sign/uncertainty gate passed. Quick also independently passed on 47 routed states in this fresh replication; that is retained as future two-teacher evidence, but the locked treatment remains deep-only.
Locality Result
Three fixed candidate batches supplied 90 deep-qualified failed states. The assembler selected exactly 60 deep capability units, 20 soup anchors, and 60 disjoint matched non-advantage controls; 57/60 controls matched the exact family/kind/level cell and three matched family/kind. The cache bound 140 samples and 35,147 active positions to quick, deep, and soup top-50 targets.
The consume-once pilot completed all five updates with the frozen 15-deep/5-soup mixture. Training mean corrected top-50 loss was 0.05242; its held probe loss fell from 0.04773 to 0.02947 and overlap rose from 0.84840 to 0.85163. On the preregistered batch-of-one exact probes, centered non-target logit drift was 0.02760 (ceiling 0.10), entropy fell 3.11% (ceiling 10%), and exact target loss improved from 0.01293 to 0.01170. Every locality check passed, authorizing four-round MOPD. Exact drift was measured at one midpoint token for each of the 20 consumed units, so this is a literal local-safety result, not a claim of invariance over every trained token or of improved capability.
Seed-42 Integration Result
All four full-dose rounds passed their frozen training gates. Each used three fresh 192-state candidate batches, selected exactly 60 deep capability units plus 20 soup anchors, completed 20 updates, and non-decreased held-probe top-50 overlap. Deep-route supply was 90, 81, 78, and 83 states; mean corrected loss was 0.05669, 0.04901, 0.04855, and 0.05404. Held-probe loss changed 0.08318→0.05112, 0.03915→0.02020, 0.03476→0.01893, and 0.04873→0.02793. The final round-3 merge receipt is 88512a57ebb190f0392118a30258eee5fb3bc58d5d34ae04e384afc8842f9122.
No capability claim follows from these training gates. Full-round probe entropy contracted 10.28%, 12.33%, 8.90%, and 11.42%; the first, second, and fourth exceed the locality pilot's 10% caution line. That ceiling was not a registered full-round stop, so the result is preserved as a collapse-risk warning rather than post-hoc reclassified. Round 1's sole 131-token cut was a cache-only route control and no consumed capability/anchor was truncated; rounds 2/3 had zero cuts in every role.
Matched Controls Result
All three trained controls completed four rounds of 20/20 consume-once updates and passed their frozen round gates. Full-prefix non-advantage routing had mean corrected losses 0.05393/0.05036/0.04990/0.04619; held-probe loss fell and top-50 overlap rose in every round. Its overlay reproduced the original matched mapping exactly in rounds 0, 2, and 3; round 1 deterministically replaced the sole original state incompatible with zero-truncation eligibility.
Wrong-teacher quick MOPD on the selected states had mean corrected losses 0.07040/0.06537/0.06047/0.06949, again with improving probe loss and non-decreasing overlap in every round. Off-policy best-deep-continuation SFT had mean cross-entropies 0.10926/0.11021/0.09851/0.09942; every round completed its registered update gate and reduced probe loss. The off-policy gate deliberately has no top-k-overlap or CE threshold, so those values are descriptive rather than borrowed MOPD gates.
The 25%/50%/75% deep parameter soups each applied 128/128 nonzero LoRA modules and bind exhaustive inference-file inventories. Terminal merge-receipt hashes for non-advantage, wrong-teacher, and off-policy controls are respectively 99e4d3258f450173204466bd4a2b4f1dfadfc54d706008e6fc3944a5f7bd57f5, 90ba5ad70a6dede8e0181c1c05f80ffa9a0d9651b604a1cc27659a8da69df544, and 5f6b2c9c1d2a68001b7556c30324976c8312c3c4f170fe489496f0580853c435. The aggregate controls receipt is 103ef4cc0b24d7c10666b6f0adfcd4dfae4720415c7fbbc76b681ab79162640b; independent canonical replay and model-byte authentication pass. This licenses sealed comparison only. It does not show that any trained arm gained capability or that advantage routing is causal.
The no-clobber semantic authorization then sealed the exact 13-arm map at hash 709694b7d770b5cbb09afe8b932bba3891ab4fea39c54c625fc84c5da973072d. Its receipt hashes to f4a5456844adeafd39e2e4f2a8036ed9fff2c78830b2eab9d4a7bfa1300d2278; the complete control-code inventory was identical immediately before and after publication. Global confirmation admission subsequently passed its independent pre/post arm-byte checks and hashes to 18c019e92fb6b7f7caed0b0f916b958d528b36b9a30607c2890e6b9385d0125d. That first admission is now archived: block-0 deep completed all generation but failed closed before scores.json because the ordinary runner path omitted a strictly required journal field that the scoring projection had represented as an empty list. The complete 6,879-output transaction is quarantined and no performance content was inspected. The failure receipt hashes to 2e645322ead3fbbdf58760849fe17def81fd12b62cdfa4b6c58808e24612ed41; it authorizes only a schema-contract fix, fresh no-clobber authorization, and a full rerun from an empty current confirmation tree.
The contract repair leaves the strict journal validator unchanged and adds the missing field as the established empty-list value on ordinary outputs. It does not alter sampled IDs, text, seeds, token budgets, scores, task geometry, or backend settings. All 212 experiment tests pass, including a direct naturally closed budget-output regression. The archived generation will not be reused; fresh authorization then passed with receipt 2b9b86aa76bfb87169a2c70313f967f20c13a09e62fbab25069120e29f0ef9f1, binding corrected control inventory 690a5b5e345f7f4070f731eb69f7a6d9adf7f8148d4b4c07e8234cb8916250ef. Fresh attempt-2 global admission subsequently passed from an empty live tree and hashes to 6424b68d01420154d10b7a999332eb4b9d44fca3cad63cf7266f098b9d9c990e. The per-arm stratum means below are the score files' direct item-weighted summaries. The frozen terminal decision instead gives each registered cell equal weight. A read-only replay of that preregistered projection on the completed block-0 arms confirms the same stop: seed 42/43/44 trail deep by −0.000481/−0.005426/−0.004869 on the deep cell macro, and seed 42 is −0.007642 joint versus deep. Thus the unreachable success rule is not a row-weighting artifact. Block-0 deep then entered STARTED; its external journal hashes to ca44441a2784a79d314b7c359dde6f136617d6bf68301b9dd0741fe3325b8d38. It completed all 4,032 atom rows and 384 18-turn episodes, passed the unchanged strict journal validator that stopped attempt 1, and atomically published score f6d7c0271aa2d7acdc04e1e62e54dfb79d7a49f244fe332e898b4b813937d1e6. The registered block-0 source anchor is 0.580068 on the deep stratum (n=3,072) and 0.810029 on the quick stratum (n=1,344), using 4,261,790 sampled tokens. This establishes only the first comparator; it cannot show a MOPD gain or causal advantage-routing effect. The block-0 non-advantage control then scored 0.565173 deep and 0.790951 quick, respectively −0.014895 and −0.019078 below the deep source anchor, using 4,468,793 sampled tokens. That shows only that this control is weaker on block 0; the treatment arms, remaining controls, and second block are still required. Block-0 off-policy SFT then scored 0.577559 deep and 0.797585 quick, −0.002509 and −0.012444 versus the deep source anchor, with 4,342,736 sampled tokens. It is stronger than non-advantage but still below the source anchor on both strata. The first MOPD treatment, primary seed 42, scored 0.577005 deep and 0.795225 quick, −0.003063 and −0.014804 versus the source and slightly below off-policy on both strata. One optimizer seed and one block are insufficient for the frozen gate. Primary seed 43 then scored 0.576097 deep and 0.804167 quick, −0.003971 and −0.005862 versus the source, with 4,408,848 sampled tokens. Primary seed 44 then scored 0.572010 deep and 0.805422 quick, −0.008058 and −0.004607 versus the source, with 4,393,570 sampled tokens. All three optimizer seeds therefore agree on a negative block-0 deep sign. The frozen success condition became unreachable, but the full campaign continued to quantify the control landscape and produce the registered terminal receipt. The quick source then scored 0.529284 deep and 0.775684 quick, respectively −0.050784 and −0.034344 versus the deep source, using 4,773,735 sampled tokens. Thus the deep source is the better source on both block-0 strata; all three MOPD seeds fall between the two sources, but none improves on the better source. The frozen soup comparison followed. The immutable 40/60 soup then scored 0.571744 deep and 0.811128 quick, −0.008324 and +0.001099 versus the deep source, using 4,392,180 sampled tokens. Each MOPD seed is slightly above soup on deep (+0.005261, +0.004353, and +0.000266) but below it on quick (−0.015903, −0.006961, and −0.005706). The update therefore does not dominate its own initialization on block 0. The registered interpolation controls then ran. Soup25 scored 0.543311 deep and 0.801212 quick, −0.036757 and −0.008817 versus the deep source, using 4,693,690 sampled tokens. It is also dominated by the 40/60 initialization by −0.028434 deep and −0.009916 quick, so this interpolation does not explain the treatment's position. Soup50 then scored 0.562536 deep and 0.812542 quick, −0.017532 and +0.002514 versus the deep source, using 4,494,796 sampled tokens. Relative to the 40/60 initialization it trades −0.009208 deep for only +0.001415 quick. Every MOPD seed is above soup50 on deep and below it on quick, again describing a Pareto trade rather than capability installation. Soup75 followed. Soup75 then scored 0.576786 deep and 0.807131 quick, only −0.003282 and −0.002897 versus the deep source, using 4,332,931 sampled tokens. It dominates MOPD seeds 43 and 44 on both strata; seed 42 is merely +0.000219 deep and −0.011906 quick versus soup75. Ordinary interpolation therefore matches or exceeds the treatment tradeoff. The registered soup best-of-eight sample-more comparator then scored 0.770908 deep and 0.946205 quick, using 35,600,602 sampled tokens. On the registered equal-cell projection it scores 0.770805 deep, 0.946205 quick, and 0.858505 joint; seed 42 trails it by −0.180246, −0.150980, and −0.165613, respectively. Matched-compute sampling therefore wins decisively on block 0. Wrong-teacher then scored 0.571148 deep and 0.788833 quick. Under the equal-cell projection, seed 42 beats it by only +0.003054 deep, +0.006392 quick, and +0.004723 joint. Teacher identity therefore has a small favorable signal, but not enough to overcome the treatment's losses to deep, soup, soup75, or sample-more. Block 0 was complete; full block 1 then ran for the sealed terminal receipt.
Block-1 deep then completed at 0.584024 deep and 0.811023 quick from 4,228,153 sampled tokens. Its registered equal-cell macros are 0.600187 deep, 0.811023 quick, and 0.705605 joint. This is the second-block source anchor, not treatment evidence. Non-advantage then scored 0.578032 deep and 0.795058 quick from 4,369,088 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros trail deep by −0.003232 deep, −0.015965 quick, and −0.009599 joint, replicating the block-0 control ordering. Off-policy SFT then scored 0.583994 deep and 0.800776 quick from 4,282,251 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell projection is +0.003614 deep, −0.010247 quick, and −0.003316 joint versus deep: another Pareto trade, not source domination. Seeds 42/43/44 then landed at equal-cell joint macros 0.699558/0.704349/0.699022, trailing deep by −0.006047/−0.001256/−0.006583. Seed 43's small deep-cell gain is paid for by quick loss; the other two seeds trail deep on both strata. Quick scored 0.664595 joint, confirming that deep is the better source on both strata in both blocks. The immutable soup scored 0.695163; all three treatments beat it locally on block 1, but that signal reverses block 0 and does not cross the deep-source frontier. Soup25 was dominated by the soup and all treatments. Soup50 now scores 0.586316 deep, 0.795188 quick, and 0.690752 joint, trailing the soup by −0.003145/−0.005677/−0.004411 and every treatment on both strata. Soup75 then scored 0.595053 deep, 0.807503 quick, and 0.701278 joint. It beats seed 42 on both block-1 strata and beats the immutable soup by +0.006115 joint while remaining below deep. Ordinary interpolation therefore exceeds the primary MOPD checkpoint on both blocks' joint projections. Soup best-of-eight then scored direct item means 0.780596 deep and 0.957211 quick from 35,135,000 sampled tokens. Its registered equal-cell macros are 0.787636 deep, 0.957211 quick, and 0.872423 joint, beating seed 42 by +0.195249, +0.150482, and +0.172865 and the deep source by +0.187449, +0.146187, and +0.166818. Averaged across both sealed blocks, sample-more beats seed 42 by +0.187748 deep, +0.150731 quick, and +0.169239 joint. This is a decisive replicated loss to the deployment-time baseline. The final wrong-teacher arm then completed.
Terminal Confirmation Result
Wrong-teacher quick MOPD closed block 1 at direct item means 0.568835 deep and 0.795695 quick from 4,408,929 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.591619 deep, 0.795695 quick, and 0.693657 joint. Primary seed 42 beats it by +0.000767, +0.011034, and +0.005901 on block 1; pooled across both blocks, correct-teacher pressure beats wrong-teacher by +0.001911 deep, +0.008713 quick, and +0.005312 joint with a one-sided 95% joint lower bound of +0.000099. Teacher identity therefore carries a small, statistically directional mechanism signal, but it does not install capability beyond the source or inference baselines.
The frozen analyzer authenticated all 26 score sets and passed every protocol check. Primary seed 42's pooled joint deltas are +0.033284 versus quick, +0.005619 versus non-advantage MOPD, and +0.010066 versus the visible router, but -0.006845 versus deep (one-sided 95% LCB -0.012839), -0.001300 versus the initial soup, -0.001872 versus off-policy SFT, -0.003706 versus soup75, and -0.169239 versus soup best-of-eight (LCB -0.175468). Both primary blocks are negative versus deep; seeds 43 and 44 also have pooled joint deltas of -0.003450 and -0.005660 versus deep. Seed 42 misses the better source on both strata in both blocks. Retention passes its 0.02 regression ceiling, and the untouched brinework/spindle transfer macros improve by +0.015625/+0.010590.
The terminal gate is therefore negative. Same-prefix verification found a real deep advantage, the routed target improved over wrong-teacher and matched non-advantage updates, and broad behavior was retained; nevertheless the deployed bf16 checkpoint did not cross its deep-source frontier, did not beat simple 75% interpolation, and was overwhelmed by matched-compute sampling on both sealed blocks. The analyzer hashes to faa1ab0d5f5af16ac252cc795ab98913bd5cc2e656040e2701e7c2b90018cdd3 and authorizes only stop_before_benchmark_cli. No benchmark content was read or run.
The strongest successor is not another larger NF4 MOPD campaign. First prove a deployment-parity causal update kernel with direct-bf16 microtraining and an explicit merge-survival gate against the deep source, interpolation, and sample-more. Only after that should a new two-teacher experiment use cross-fitted direct teacher - student advantage prediction, uncertainty-aware adaptive allocation (including zero quick allocation), and a third untouched block. The predictor cannot rescue an update operator that fails to survive deployment.
NF4/BF16 Interpretation Diagnostic
The committed interpretation-only seed-42 diagnostic is valid over four fixed 6-deep/2-soup probes (32 units, 7,970 target positions), but it finds weak training/deployment update parity. Mean NF4 objective gain was +0.02191, while the explicit bf16 merges averaged -0.000224; unit gain-sign agreement was 46.88%, gain correlation was -0.152, and midpoint update cosine averaged 0.407. Endpoint predictions were often superficially close (31/32 top-1 agreement), which does not rescue the divergent update signal. The diagnostic cannot stop, rescue, or reclassify the frozen experiment. It establishes that NF4 probe improvement is weak evidence about deployed bf16 behavior and makes the sealed same-vLLM confirmation—not trainer-side loss—the decisive test.
Artifacts
idea_intake.md: novelty and duplicate decision.configs/default.yaml: frozen seeds, geometry, gates, and controls.reports/preregistration.md: estimands and terminal decisions.reports/design_review.md: adversarial pre-output review.reports/literature_review.md: primary-paper and repository basis.runs/preregistration_receipt.json: immutable design hashes and commit.analysis/: machine-readable gates and final receipt.reports/artifact_manifest.yaml: external checkpoints and regeneration.
Confirmation keeps only the atomic scores.json commit marker under each runs/confirmation/ arm. The mirrored large_artifacts/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/confirmation/ directory retains STARTED, GENERATED, and COMPLETE receipts, gzip atom/episode rows, and one durable gzip journal bundle per returned generation call. No partial is deleted or resampled: a started-only/interrupted attempt is terminal, an authenticated GENERATED or COMPLETE attempt may be finalized without generation, and a caught failure is quarantined with hashes of every retained byte. Before any arm may reserve STARTED, a no-clobber global ADMISSION.json binds the exact semantic-controls authorization receipt, its complete stable control-code inventory, every admitted model, both blocks, and the evaluator source inventory. The same binding is required in every transaction and score, so a score created before (or under different code than) that authorization cannot be reused.
Every score authenticates sampled-token totals from stage-1/stage-2 sampled ID arrays (including trimmed terminal IDs and excluding injected close tokens), cross-checks runner request/completion/token totals, hashes each complete returned request and output before scoring, and replays atom scoring plus every episode action, transition, and terminal score from the journaled text. It binds exact task-manifest and ordered-plan hashes, the registered raw and resolved greedy/sample-8 settings (including seed, budgets, penalties, and multiplicity), and one canonical fingerprint of the pinned vLLM/Python/package-lock/GPU/CUDA engine protocol. A confirmation-only wrapper also proves each call fits the live-derived hybrid cache with ceil(tokens/528) + 3*ceil(tokens/16384) (35 blocks at full context) and zero-preemption capacity. Resume, analysis, and benchmark authorization recompute all of this, require one backend across all 26 score sets and one exact task plan per block, and inventory every score, marker, raw file, and call bundle. Benchmark authorization itself is an exclusive no-clobber seal. Any later mutation stops benchmarking.
Benchmark files remain unread and unreachable unless the procedural confirmation explicitly authorizes the run-only CLI.
Report
Rendered from reports/report.md
Status
The preregistered CPU/scientific smoke, pinned-model preflight, installation canary, fresh route qualification, five-update exact-logit locality pilot, all three four-round integrations, matched controls, and fixed parameter soups passed their protocol gates. The complete sealed comparison is terminal negative: all three MOPD seeds trail deep, seed 42 trails ordinary soup75 and matched-compute soup best-of-eight, and the analyzer authorizes only stop_before_benchmark_cli. Retention and transfer pass; benchmarking did not open.
Research Program Fit
This is the direct intervention follow-up to qwen35_4b_same_prefix_advantage_routing. That experiment independently qualified deep but stopped before MOPD because its separate quick prerequisite failed. This new directory preserves that negative and tests only the surviving deep mechanism.
Method
Two fresh split-branch blocks must requalify the unchanged strict deep route on the immutable 40/60 soup. If and only if that passes, a five-update exact-logit pilot may authorize four rounds of deep-top-50 corrected reverse-KL MOPD with a 25% frozen-soup anchor. Matched controls move deep targets to non-advantage states, replace deep with quick on the exact selected states, or imitate the best deep continuation off-policy.
Results
Preflight and installation checks pass. On the eight fixed canary prompts, quick, deep, and soup each changed all 8 outputs relative to base; quick and deep differed on 8/8, while soup differed from quick on 8/8 and deep on 7/8. The source/soup gate therefore authorized fresh route qualification.
Qualification then passed. Across 384 new states and 9,216 same-prefix continuations, the selector routed 54 states to deep (28/26 by block). Deep's independent audit advantage over soup was +0.16499/+0.12205, pooled +0.14209 with one-sided 95% lower bound +0.12297. Against quick it was +0.20003/+0.14203, pooled +0.16910 with lower bound +0.15337. The minimum support, both block signs, and both uncertainty gates passed.
The diagnostic quick route also passed on these fresh blocks: 29/18 routed states, quick-over-soup +0.08198/+0.17054 and pooled lower bound +0.10008; quick-over-deep +0.05378/+0.27883 and lower bound +0.12129. This does not change the locked deep-only treatment. It strengthens the case that a later two-teacher attempt should use the preregistered cross-fitted direct-advantage predictor and a third untouched block rather than reusing these outcomes.
The online locality round required three candidate batches. Across 576 failed states, the selector found 90 deep routes; the assembler froze exactly 60 deep capability units, 20 soup anchors, and 60 disjoint matched non-advantage controls. Control matching was exact-cell for 57 units and family/kind for three. The all-policy cache contains 140 samples, 35,147 active positions, and hash-bound quick/deep/soup top-50 targets.
The locality pilot then consumed exactly 15 deep and five soup units over five updates. Mean corrected top-50 loss was 0.05242, below the 0.10 training ceiling; held-probe loss improved 0.04773→0.02947 and top-50 overlap improved 0.84840→0.85163. On batch-of-one exact probes, centered non-target logit drift was 0.02760, relative entropy drop was 0.03112, and target loss improved 0.01293→0.01170. All frozen checks passed and the machine-readable authorization is four_round_mopd.
Seed 42 then completed all four full-dose rounds. Deep-route supply was 90/81/78/83, and every round selected 60 deep units plus 20 soup anchors, completed 20 consume-once updates, stayed below the 0.10 mean-loss ceiling, and non-decreased held-probe overlap. Mean corrected losses were 0.05669/0.04901/0.04855/0.05404; probe losses improved in every round. The terminal merge receipt is 88512a57ebb190f0392118a30258eee5fb3bc58d5d34ae04e384afc8842f9122. Entropy nevertheless contracted 10.28%/12.33%/8.90%/11.42%. This is not a registered full-round stop, but it is a material collapse-risk warning.
Seed 43 independently completed all four rounds. Deep-route supply was 90/60/82/60; rounds 1 and 3 reached quota after two candidate batches, while round 2 used three. Mean corrected losses were 0.05638/0.05172/0.05588/0.05130; every round reduced held-probe mean loss and non-decreased overlap. Round-3 probe loss improved 0.07297→0.04417 and overlap 0.83025→0.83288. Its terminal merge receipt is 4af497550de22d9bbafdd9de97dd95eabeb6b16b6fa9a7516bf78c4c719d6ecf. Probe entropy contracted 12.49%/9.54%/10.66%/13.11%, repeating the same collapse-risk warning. The independent four-round provenance audit passes. This establishes optimizer-seed/route-supply robustness only; it is not a deployed capability result.
Seed 44 independently completed all four rounds. Deep-route supply was 90/82/69/65; rounds 0 and 1 used three candidate batches and rounds 2 and 3 used two. Mean corrected losses were 0.05674/0.05561/0.04284/0.05147; every round reduced held-probe mean loss and increased top-50 overlap. Round-3 probe loss improved 0.05601→0.02952 and overlap 0.82982→0.83459. Its terminal merge receipt is 33ae673db2abda3bfee69f311f5d5d5b8e1bda29fb2c1b286b3adbe514d4ba00. Probe entropy contracted 11.05%/9.53%/10.62%/7.55%; rounds 0 and 2 therefore repeat the non-gating collapse-risk warning. The independent four-round provenance audit passes with integration-receipt hash ff329ebccdc888689b6d6c985a558e66a2385aaa701babf8724d61444428bf1f.
All controls then completed. Full-prefix non-advantage deep MOPD passed all four round gates with mean corrected losses 0.05393/0.05036/0.04990/0.04619; probe loss improved and top-50 overlap non-decreased in every round. The rematcher reproduced the original mapping exactly in rounds 0, 2, and 3, and deterministically replaced the sole zero-truncation-ineligible round-1 match. Wrong-teacher quick MOPD also passed all four rounds, with losses 0.07040/0.06537/0.06047/0.06949 and the same probe-loss/overlap directions. Off-policy best-deep-continuation SFT completed all registered updates with mean CEs 0.10926/0.11021/0.09851/0.09942 and reduced probe loss in every round. Its frozen gate does not impose an MOPD overlap or CE threshold.
The 25%/50%/75% deep parameter soups each contain 128/128 nonzero merged LoRA modules and an exhaustive inference inventory. The final trained-control merge receipts are 99e4d3258f450173204466bd4a2b4f1dfadfc54d706008e6fc3944a5f7bd57f5, 90ba5ad70a6dede8e0181c1c05f80ffa9a0d9651b604a1cc27659a8da69df544, and 5f6b2c9c1d2a68001b7556c30324976c8312c3c4f170fe489496f0580853c435. The aggregate receipt hash is 103ef4cc0b24d7c10666b6f0adfcd4dfae4720415c7fbbc76b681ab79162640b. Independent replay revalidated every canonical ledger, source binding, adapter/merge chain, parameter mixture, and model byte. These are readiness and optimizer-safety results only; superiority and causal routing remain wholly reserved for sealed confirmation.
The subsequent no-clobber semantic authorization passed with canonical 13-arm map hash 709694b7d770b5cbb09afe8b932bba3891ab4fea39c54c625fc84c5da973072d and receipt hash f4a5456844adeafd39e2e4f2a8036ed9fff2c78830b2eab9d4a7bfa1300d2278. The complete control-code inventory hash was unchanged on both sides of publication. Global confirmation admission then passed the independent pre/post model-map checks and hashes to 18c019e92fb6b7f7caed0b0f916b958d528b36b9a30607c2890e6b9385d0125d. The first block-0 deep attempt completed generation but was quarantined before score publication: the ordinary runner-output schema omitted retained_thinking_token_ids, while the strict journal validator required the field that the scoring projection had already defaulted to []. No generated text, task semantics, score, or aggregate performance was inspected. Failure receipt 2e645322ead3fbbdf58760849fe17def81fd12b62cdfa4b6c58808e24612ed41 licenses only a contract repair, fresh authorization/admission, and full rerun. The repair now makes the ordinary runner emit the already-established [] projection explicitly while leaving the strict validator and every generated or scored semantic unchanged. A direct regression and all 212 experiment tests pass. Attempt-1 bytes remain terminal and will not be reused. Fresh semantic authorization now passes and hashes to 2b9b86aa76bfb87169a2c70313f967f20c13a09e62fbab25069120e29f0ef9f1; its pre/post control inventories both hash to 690a5b5e… and include repaired runner 1e065b9c…. Fresh empty-tree admission hashes to 6424b68d01420154d10b7a999332eb4b9d44fca3cad63cf7266f098b9d9c990e. Block-0 deep then completed 4,032 atom rows and 384 full episode rows, passed the unchanged strict call-journal validator, and published score f6d7c0271aa2d7acdc04e1e62e54dfb79d7a49f244fe332e898b4b813937d1e6. Its source-anchor means are 0.580068 on the deep stratum (n=3,072) and 0.810029 on the quick stratum (n=1,344), using 4,261,790 sampled tokens. This resolves the attempt-1 schema-contract question and supplies one sealed comparator only; it does not establish a MOPD gain or routing causality. Block-0 non-advantage then scored 0.565173 deep and 0.790951 quick, respectively −0.014895 and −0.019078 versus that source anchor, using 4,468,793 sampled tokens. This is one control/source comparison on one block; the treatment arms and second block remain necessary. Block-0 off-policy SFT then scored 0.577559 deep and 0.797585 quick, −0.002509 and −0.012444 versus the deep source anchor, using 4,342,736 sampled tokens. It exceeds non-advantage on both strata but remains a one-block control result. Primary seed 42, the first MOPD treatment, then scored 0.577005 deep and 0.795225 quick, −0.003063 and −0.014804 versus the deep source anchor and slightly below off-policy on both strata, using 4,422,572 sampled tokens. This is an unfavorable first treatment block; seeds 43/44 and block 1 remain required by the frozen decision rule. Primary seed 43 repeats the negative block-0 deep sign: 0.576097 deep and 0.804167 quick, −0.003971 and −0.005862 versus the source, using 4,408,848 sampled tokens. Primary seed 44 scores 0.572010 deep and 0.805422 quick, −0.008058 and −0.004607 versus the source, using 4,393,570 sampled tokens. All three optimizer seeds therefore have negative block-0 deep signs; the frozen success condition is unreachable, while the full campaign continues for the registered terminal receipt and control ranking. The quick source then scores 0.529284 deep and 0.775684 quick, −0.050784 and −0.034344 versus the deep source, using 4,773,735 sampled tokens. The deep source is therefore the better source on both block-0 strata. All three MOPD seeds lie between the two sources, but none beats the better source; the soup and remaining controls are still needed to resolve whether the update added anything beyond the initialization or parameter interpolation. The immutable 40/60 soup then scores 0.571744 deep and 0.811128 quick, −0.008324 and +0.001099 versus the deep source, using 4,392,180 sampled tokens. Seeds 42/43/44 exceed soup by only +0.005261/+0.004353/+0.000266 on deep while losing by −0.015903/−0.006961/−0.005706 on quick. The treatment therefore does not dominate its own initialization on block 0; the registered interpolation controls remain necessary to locate the Pareto tradeoff. Soup25 then scores 0.543311 deep and 0.801212 quick, −0.036757 and −0.008817 versus the deep source, using 4,693,690 sampled tokens. It is dominated by the 40/60 initialization by −0.028434 deep and −0.009916 quick. This first interpolation control therefore does not explain the treatment checkpoints; soup50, soup75, and the remaining controls are still required. Soup50 then scores 0.562536 deep and 0.812542 quick, −0.017532 and +0.002514 versus the deep source, using 4,494,796 sampled tokens. It gives up 0.009208 deep for only 0.001415 quick versus the immutable 40/60 soup. All three treatments lie on the opposite side of that trade—higher deep and lower quick—so neither checkpoint class dominates the other. Soup75 then scores 0.576786 deep and 0.807131 quick, −0.003282 and −0.002897 versus the deep source, using 4,332,931 sampled tokens. It dominates MOPD seeds 43 and 44 on both strata. Seed 42 exceeds it by only 0.000219 deep while losing 0.011906 quick. Thus a registered parameter interpolation matches or exceeds the treatment's block-0 tradeoff without online advantage updates. The registered soup best-of-eight baseline then scores 0.770908 deep and 0.946205 quick from 35,600,602 sampled tokens. Under the terminal analyzer's equal-cell projection it is 0.770805 deep, 0.946205 quick, and 0.858505 joint; seed 42 trails by −0.180246, −0.150980, and −0.165613. Thus the single-checkpoint treatment does not beat matched-compute sampling on block 0.
For clarity, the preceding per-arm values are the score files' item-weighted stratum summaries. The frozen decision projection equal-weights registered cells. That projection independently confirms the earlier stop: seed 42/43/44 trail deep by −0.000481/−0.005426/−0.004869 on the block-0 deep macro, and seed 42 is −0.007642 joint versus deep. The conclusion is therefore not an artifact of the interim display weighting. Wrong-teacher closes block 0 at 0.571148 deep and 0.788833 quick. Its equal-cell macros are 0.587505, 0.788833, and 0.688169 joint, so seed 42 beats it by only +0.003054, +0.006392, and +0.004723. Correct-teacher pressure is directionally better than quick-teacher pressure on the selected states, but this small mechanism signal does not approach the deficits to the source, initialization, interpolation, or matched-compute sampling baselines. Block 0 is therefore a complete recipe negative; block 1 remains required for the registered terminal receipt and cross-block control ranking. Block-1 deep establishes the second source anchor at direct item means 0.584024 deep and 0.811023 quick from 4,228,153 sampled tokens. Its frozen equal-cell projection is 0.600187 deep, 0.811023 quick, and 0.705605 joint. Block-1 non-advantage then lands at equal-cell macros 0.596955 deep, 0.795058 quick, and 0.696006 joint, trailing deep by −0.003232, −0.015965, and −0.009599. The matched non-route control is therefore below the source on both sealed blocks; this still cannot establish a routed treatment gain before the block-1 primary arms complete. Block-1 off-policy SFT has equal-cell macros 0.603801 deep, 0.800776 quick, and 0.702289 joint. Relative to deep it gains +0.003614 on deep but loses −0.010247 quick and −0.003316 joint. The continuation-SFT control is stronger than non-advantage on this block, but it still does not dominate the source. Block-1 primary seed 42 then scores direct item means 0.575202 deep and 0.806729 quick from 4,404,223 sampled tokens. Its frozen equal-cell macros are 0.592386 deep, 0.806729 quick, and 0.699558 joint, trailing deep by −0.007800, −0.004294, and −0.006047. Thus the registered treatment's deep-cell sign is negative versus deep on both sealed blocks, and block 1 does not rescue the block-0 stop. The remaining seeds and controls are still needed for the terminal cross-block ranking, not to reopen the frozen success rule. Block-1 primary seed 43 then lands at direct item means 0.582282 deep and 0.806832 quick from 4,367,189 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.601865 deep, 0.806832 quick, and 0.704349 joint: +0.001678, −0.004191, and −0.001256 versus deep. This is a tiny deep-cell trade paid for by quick loss, not checkpoint domination; it also misses the registered positive block-1 joint direction versus deep required of the replication seed. Block-1 primary seed 44 scores direct item means 0.571220 deep and 0.807583 quick from 4,359,813 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.590461 deep, 0.807583 quick, and 0.699022 joint, trailing deep by −0.009726, −0.003440, and −0.006583. All three treatment seeds therefore fail to dominate deep on block 1 as well: two are below it on both strata and seed 43 makes only a small deep-for-quick trade. The remaining controls can rank the failure mode but cannot restore the frozen success condition. The block-1 quick source then scores direct item means 0.529900 deep and 0.777722 quick from 4,736,614 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.551467 deep, 0.777722 quick, and 0.664595 joint, trailing deep by −0.048720, −0.033301, and −0.041010. Deep is therefore the better source on both strata in both blocks. Every treatment seed beats quick here, but that only places the updates between or near their sources; it does not satisfy the registered requirement to improve on the better source. The immutable 40/60 soup scores direct item means 0.569971 deep and 0.800865 quick from 4,363,638 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.589461 deep, 0.800865 quick, and 0.695163 joint, trailing deep by −0.010726, −0.010158, and −0.010442. All three treatment seeds beat the initialization on both block-1 strata, with joint gains of +0.004394, +0.009185, and +0.003859 for seeds 42/43/44. That is a real block-local update signal, but it reverses the block-0 comparison—no treatment dominated soup there—and still does not cross the better-source frontier. Soup25 then scores direct item means 0.543777 deep and 0.792800 quick from 4,688,835 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.562769 deep, 0.792800 quick, and 0.677784 joint, trailing the immutable soup by −0.026693, −0.008066, and −0.017379. The 25%-deep interpolation is dominated by the initialization on both sealed blocks and cannot explain the treatment checkpoints; all three block-1 treatment seeds dominate it as well. Soup50 then scores direct item means 0.565327 deep and 0.795188 quick from 4,451,128 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.586316 deep, 0.795188 quick, and 0.690752 joint, trailing the immutable soup by −0.003145, −0.005677, and −0.004411. It is also dominated by every block-1 treatment on both strata. Thus the 50%-deep interpolation is a Pareto trade on block 0 but strictly dominated on block 1; it does not explain a stable beyond-initialization effect. Soup75 then scores direct item means 0.576310 deep and 0.807503 quick from 4,289,527 sampled tokens. Its equal-cell macros are 0.595053 deep, 0.807503 quick, and 0.701278 joint, beating the immutable soup by +0.005592, +0.006638, and +0.006115. It also exceeds primary seed 42 by +0.002667 deep, +0.000775 quick, and +0.001721 joint. Since soup75 also has a block-0 joint advantage over seed 42, ordinary interpolation is stronger than the registered primary on both sealed blocks without routed online updates. It remains below deep and therefore locates, rather than crosses, the source frontier. Block-1 soup best-of-eight then scores direct item means 0.780596 deep and 0.957211 quick from 35,135,000 sampled tokens. Its frozen equal-cell macros are 0.787636 deep, 0.957211 quick, and 0.872423 joint, exceeding seed 42 by +0.195249, +0.150482, and +0.172865 and the deep source by +0.187449, +0.146187, and +0.166818. Across both blocks, sample-more averages 0.779220 deep, 0.951708 quick, and 0.865464 joint, beating seed 42 by +0.187748, +0.150731, and +0.169239. Thus the registered method does not merely miss a capability threshold: it is decisively dominated by matched-compute inference on both sealed blocks. The final wrong-teacher arm then finished the mechanism ranking and terminal receipt.
Wrong-teacher closed block 1 at equal-cell macros 0.591619 deep, 0.795695 quick, and 0.693657 joint. Primary seed 42 exceeds it by +0.005901 joint on that block and +0.005312 pooled across both blocks; the pooled one-sided 95% lower bound is +0.000099. Correct teacher identity is therefore directionally better than applying quick-teacher pressure on the exact same selected states. Seed 42 also beats matched non-advantage MOPD by +0.005619 pooled joint with LCB +0.000582. These two controls show that the verifier-backed route and teacher identity contain a real update signal. They do not show capability installation.
The frozen terminal analyzer authenticates all 26 score sets and passes every protocol check. Primary seed 42 has pooled joint deltas −0.006845 versus deep (one-sided 95% LCB −0.012839), −0.001300 versus the immutable soup, −0.001872 versus off-policy SFT, and −0.003706 versus soup75. Both block means versus deep are negative. Seeds 43/44 also trail deep by −0.003450 and −0.005660 pooled joint, and every primary better-source stratum cell fails. Against soup best-of-eight, seed 42 is −0.169239 pooled joint with LCB −0.175468. Retention passes its 0.02 regression allowance, while untouched transfer improves +0.015625 on brinework and +0.010590 on spindle.
This is a clean mechanism-positive/capability-negative separation. The update preserves broad behavior and moves in the correct-teacher direction, but the deployed checkpoint remains below deep, below ordinary 75% interpolation, and far below matched-compute sampling. Together with the interpretation-only NF4/bf16 diagnostic (mean trainer objective gain +0.02191 versus merged bf16 gain −0.000224, correlation −0.152), the highest-information successor is a direct-bf16 deployment-parity microtrial with an explicit merge-survival gate. Cross-fitted two-teacher prediction and adaptive allocation cannot compensate for an update operator that does not cross the source frontier after merge.
The terminal analysis hashes to faa1ab0d5f5af16ac252cc795ab98913bd5cc2e656040e2701e7c2b90018cdd3 and emits stop_before_benchmark_cli. Benchmarking was neither authorized nor run.
Together, the three frozen optimizer seeds establish that the registered four-round update can complete safely and that strict-deep route supply persists on fresh seed-local states after the shared round-0 block. They do not by themselves establish capability gain, causal advantage routing, superiority to any source, router, control, parameter soup, or sample-more baseline, retention, transfer, or composability. The valid sealed confirmation above resolves those comparisons: directional control effects and retention/transfer pass, while capability installation fails. The quarantined attempt contributes no performance evidence.
The valid interpretation-only NF4/bf16 diagnostic further weakens any inference from trainer-side improvement. Across 32 fixed consumed units and 7,970 target positions, mean NF4 objective gain was +0.02191, while the explicit bf16 merges averaged -0.000224; gain-sign agreement was 15/32, gain correlation was -0.152, and midpoint update cosine averaged 0.407. Endpoint top-1 agreement was still 31/32. Thus endpoint similarity does not establish update parity, and the diagnostic gives no authorization. The later sealed same-vLLM procedural confirmation determines that the deployed checkpoint did not gain beyond its source and strong inference baselines.
The exact locality measurement covers one midpoint active token for each of the 20 consumed units, rather than every one of the 4,898 trained positions. It therefore establishes the literal preregistered local-safety gate, not global invariance. The later sealed procedural result is terminal negative; no benchmark result exists because the frozen stop forbade exposure.
Before starting controls, a fail-closed review found that the prior semantic authorization did not fully reauthenticate the frozen quick/deep/soup source bytes and could adopt a model mutation between authorization and global confirmation admission. No control authorization, admission, or confirmation output existed, so the boundary was hardened without changing a result or a frozen scientific choice. The shared validator now requires the exact seven-file checkpoint root and one of two frozen load profiles, authenticates all model and receipt bytes, seals the canonical 13-arm map in controls authorization, rechecks the full map on both sides of ADMISSION, and rechecks each arm around evaluation. All provenance and transition regressions pass.
Oracle Versus Deployable Boundary
Same-prefix verifier scores are training-only acquisition evidence. The deployable primary must be one explicit merged Qwen3.5-4B checkpoint with no teacher, verifier, router, or tool hidden at inference time.
Interpretation Contract
Route, locality, training, control, procedural confirmation, and blackbox benchmark results are distinct stages. An unreached stage is not negative and will not be inferred from an earlier stop.
Artifact Manifest
Large source, soup, adapter, and merged checkpoints remain external under the paths in artifact_manifest.yaml. Small configs, receipts, analyses, tests, and reports remain in git.
Experiment log 51
Show the running log (51 entries, 2026-07-12 → 15)
2026-07-12 — intake and pre-output design
- Created a new result-bearing directory rather than modifying the completed two-teacher experiment.
- Selected the deep-only branch because deep independently passed both same-prefix audit contrasts in both predecessor blocks; MOPD remained untested only because quick was separately mandatory.
- Reused the exact immutable 40/60 soup by SHA-256 instead of constructing a numerically new starting checkpoint. New training artifacts have a separate external root.
- Froze two new route blocks, the unchanged strict deep-over-quick-and-student rule, five-update locality, four 60-deep/20-soup rounds, three primary seeds, and unconditional final comparisons against sources, router, controls, and sample-more.
- Added two direct mechanism controls: deep targets on one-to-one matched non-deep-selected states, and quick targets on the exact selected states. The off-policy continuation control and parameter soups remain.
- Copied the parent harness and procedural gym, then adapted quotas, route gate, target-cache inventory, locality mixture, controls, and confirmation without generating task-model output.
- Passed 50 isolated tests and all 14 family selftests; verified the exact quick, deep, and immutable-soup file hashes. The smoke receipt contains no task-model generation.
- Committed the complete frozen design at
1ef1f5ad, pushed it to sharedmain, and wroteruns/preregistration_receipt.jsonwith byte hashes for all frozen files before any Qwen load.
2026-07-12 — pinned-model and installation preflight
- Passed all four pinned-runtime semantic probes and a finite Transformers training forward pass; vLLM resolved the registered full/piecewise graph geometry.
- Revalidated exact quick, deep, and soup checkpoint hashes and merge receipts. On the eight fixed canary prompts, every installed checkpoint differed from base; quick/deep differed on 8/8, soup/quick on 8/8, and soup/deep on 7/8.
- The installation gate authorizes the fresh two-block route qualification. No route evidence or training output exists yet.
2026-07-13 — fresh route qualification passes
- Generated two disjoint 192-state soup blocks and 9,216 continuations: three policies × four selection + four audit branches. All state, replay, model, engine, and branch-hash checks passed.
- Deep routed on 28/26 states. Independent audit deep-minus-soup was +0.16499/+0.12205 by block (pooled +0.14209, one-sided lower bound +0.12297); deep-minus-quick was +0.20003/+0.14203 (pooled +0.16910, lower bound +0.15337). The frozen deep gate passed.
- Quick also passed diagnostically on 29/18 routes in this new replication, unlike its predecessor reversal. The locked treatment remains deep-only; the result is evidence for, not permission to improvise, the later cross-fitted two-teacher design.
- Downstream authorization is exactly
locality_pilot. No update has run.
2026-07-13 — five-update exact-logit locality passes
- The first two online candidate batches supplied 55/60 required deep routes, so the frozen runner opened a third batch rather than weakening the quota. Three batches yielded 90 deep routes among 576 failed states.
- The final round manifest contains exactly 60 deep capability units, 20 soup anchors, and 60 disjoint non-advantage controls. Control matching used 57 exact cells and three family/kind fallbacks. Its SHA-256 is
f4a1eb0848804ddef874ece0afef89a1ea39d84f2717b971575f2ff5f021e0e8. - Cached all three policies for 140 samples and 35,147 active positions. The cache SHA-256 is
20c21a5bb8e8b8058d0b7377929b37fd5e2eca8e55598d61b6ac827503761e76. - The pilot completed all five updates with the exact 15-deep/5-soup mixture. Training mean corrected top-50 loss was
0.05242; held-probe loss improved0.04773→0.02947and overlap improved0.84840→0.85163. - Exact batch-of-one probes measured centered non-target drift
0.02760, relative entropy drop0.03112, and target loss0.01293→0.01170. Every frozen check passed. The probe is one midpoint token per consumed unit, so the authorization is literal and deliberately not described as global token-position invariance. - Downstream authorization is exactly
four_round_mopd. No capability result, control comparison, or benchmark event exists yet.
2026-07-13 — seed-42 integration round-1 cache recovery
- Full-dose round 0 passed: 20/20 updates, exact 60-deep/20-soup geometry, mean corrected loss
0.05669, probe loss0.08318→0.05112, and non-decreasing overlap. Its merged receipt is8432e6391ce1f4ce328938163984f490bc424325832c891a58a5dbf35cb06920. - Round 1 used three fresh candidate batches. It found 81 deep routes among 576 failed states and froze the exact 60-deep/20-anchor/60-control quotas (56 controls exact-cell, four family/kind).
- Target-cache construction stopped before loading any policy because one matched route-control episode tokenized to
3,203 > 3,072. This was an implementation omission, not a registered scientific stop: the fixed training length existed, but completion-preserving prompt fitting did not. - Recovery keeps the frozen
3,072budget and every completion/target position, deterministically left-truncates only oldest prompt tokens, records the exact cut in cache/training receipts, and still fails if a completion leaves no causal prompt token. Regression coverage reproduces the exact3,203→3,072case. Existing states, branch ledgers, routes, quotas, and model outputs are reused unchanged.
2026-07-13 — live integration integrity audit
- Round 1 subsequently passed its frozen gate: 20/20 updates, mean corrected loss
0.04901, probe loss0.03915→0.02020, and overlap0.84121→0.84604. Exactly 60 deep and 20 anchors were consumed with zero prompt truncation. The sole 131-token cut remains a cache-only matched route-control sample. - An independent math audit confirmed the teacher-top-50 corrected reverse-KL value, gradient, causal indexing, masks, quotas, and no-hint construction. It also exposed prospective fail-open edges before they affected a primary update.
- Cache creation now fails before model load if a capability or anchor prefix would be shortened, and every trainer independently rejects any shortened sample selected by its arm. Per-role truncation counts are receipted. The known round-1 route control therefore requires a deterministic full-prefix replacement from the already-frozen candidate pool before that control may run; the primary manifest/cache remain immutable.
- Cache creation, resume, and training now bind stage, frozen config hash, top-k, and exact quick/deep/soup paths plus model-config and merge-receipt hashes. Existing round-0/1 caches pass the strengthened validator.
- Fixed a pre-control implementation error: off-policy pressure probes had taken the first eight lexicographic units (5/3 and 1/7 capability/anchor in actual rounds 0/1). They now use and receipt the registered deterministic 6-capability/2-anchor geometry. The frozen initial-objective-loss scaling definition is unchanged.
- Full-round probe entropy contracted
10.28%in round 0 and12.33%in round 1. This is not a registered full-round stop—the 10% entropy ceiling is specific to locality—so no post-hoc gate was added. It is preserved as a collapse-risk warning for confirmation and final interpretation. - All 58 experiment tests pass after the safeguards. Seed 42 remains in progress; no capability or control comparison exists yet.
2026-07-13 — deterministic control-only full-prefix overlay
- Implemented the required route-control recovery without changing the frozen primary manifest or target cache. The control path replays the original matcher from all 15 hashed candidate artifacts, applies only the registered
3,072-token full-prefix eligibility condition, and fails if the filter changes any nonoffending match. - On the actual round-1 evidence, 490/495 non-deep candidates are eligible and the replay changes exactly one of 60 pairs. The cut
episode-256a1dbfee96673bcc5a8066is replaced at the same cache index by the first legal exact-cell candidate,episode-2e451ff7c44b165288e7c8f4(2,907tokens, no cut). The other 59 controls and the 56-exact-cell/4-family-kind geometry are unchanged. - Only the future
non_advantage_routearm can consume the derived cache. Wrong-teacher, primary, and off-policy paths retain their original inputs. The overlay copies 139 samples byte-semantically and scores only the one new sample under the same quick/deep/soup target policies; transitive receipts bind the source cache, manifest, candidate files, tokenizer, and replacement. - A no-GPU end-to-end dry run against the real round-1 inputs produced the expected sample at cache index 138 and passed both provenance validators. Nine focused rematch tests and all 79 current experiment tests pass. Actual policy scoring and control training have not run, so no control result exists.
2026-07-13 — seed-42 four-round integration passes
- Rounds 2 and 3 completed the frozen seed-42 trajectory. Each of all four rounds used three fresh candidate batches, selected exactly 60 deep units and 20 soup anchors, consumed them once over 20 updates, and passed finite-loss plus non-decreasing-overlap gates.
- Deep-route supply by round was 90/81/78/83. Mean corrected losses were
0.05669/0.04901/0.04855/0.05404; probe losses were0.08318→0.05112,0.03915→0.02020,0.03476→0.01893, and0.04873→0.02793. The terminal integration receipt records four completed rounds and gate pass; the round-3 merge receipt is88512a57ebb190f0392118a30258eee5fb3bc58d5d34ae04e384afc8842f9122. - Probe entropy drops were
10.28%/12.33%/8.90%/11.42%. The locality ceiling is not a registered full-round gate, so no post-hoc stop was added; the contractions remain an explicit collapse-risk warning. - Hardened the later control/confirmation chain without altering frozen science: one canonical route-control matcher, atomic score-last external raw artifacts, raw-to-score semantic replay, exact full confirmation geometry, and raw hashes retained through benchmark execution. An independent audit found no remaining blocker; 116 experiment tests and repository CI pass.
2026-07-13 — NF4 versus bf16 diagnostic warns against trainer inference
- Ran the preregistered interpretation-only diagnostic after seed 42 and code stabilization. It validated all four fixed 6-deep/2-soup probes, exact LoRA attachment/replay, 7,970 natural target positions, and unchanged artifacts.
- NF4 objective gain averaged
+0.02191, but the explicit bf16 merges averaged-0.000224. Only 15/32 unit gains agreed in sign (46.88%), Pearson gain correlation was-0.152, and mean midpoint update cosine was0.407. - Endpoint top-1 agreement was 31/32, illustrating the trap: endpoint outputs can look close while the measured update direction is not. The diagnostic has no scientific gate and no downstream authorization. It does not change seed 42's registered pass; it makes sealed vLLM procedural confirmation the only acceptable capability verdict.
2026-07-13 — seed-43 round-1 pass and byte-preserving recovery
- Seed 43 passed round 0 with 20/20 updates, mean corrected loss
0.05638, probe loss0.08318→0.04706, and non-decreasing overlap. Round 1 reached the exact 60-deep quota after two fresh batches (52 quick diagnostics, 272 abstentions) and froze 60 deep, 20 soup anchors, and 60 matched controls (56 exact-cell, four family/kind). - After the second batch's student-state receipt was durably complete, the first quick-branch subprocess stopped before model construction because a concurrent confirmation hardening temporarily removed the legacy
_engine_protocolsymbol imported bybranch_states.py. No branch draw began and no state was regenerated. The exact compatibility function was restored, direct acquisition-import regressions were added, and the same integration command reused every authenticated batch-0/batch-1 byte before starting the untouched quick branch. - Round 1 then passed: 20/20 updates, zero prefix truncation, mean corrected loss
0.05172, probe loss0.05210→0.02899, and overlap0.83395→0.83775. Its merge receipt is2160ecd97c4ee2eda7a29f09048802b953e99d7f026420a653d22c8c009db449. The seed-43 integration receipt remains deliberately in progress at two of four rounds; this infrastructure interruption is not a scientific stop and no capability conclusion exists yet.
2026-07-13 — parameter-control outputs now fail closed
- A pre-control transition audit found that the soup25/50/75 merge receipts bound their source adapters and output safetensors, but resume and independent authorization did not rehash those output bytes. Corruption could therefore weaken a sealed comparator without invalidating the controls receipt.
- Weighted merges now receipt an exhaustive, sorted recursive inventory of every regular inference artifact (weights, model configuration, tokenizer, and nested load assets), rejecting symlinked or non-regular paths. Both the controls runner and the independent authorization path require exact current names and hashes plus the frozen model, revision, adapters, mixture weight, and merge semantics.
- Regression coverage fails on mutated, missing, extra, and symlinked weight, configuration, tokenizer, and nested artifacts, including both resume and independent-audit call paths. All 199 experiment tests pass in the pinned training environment. No parameter-control output existed when this was fixed, so no result or frozen scientific choice changed.
2026-07-13 — seed-43 round-2 pass
- Round 2 required all three frozen candidate batches. The first two were only four examples short of quota; the final supply was 82 deep, 76 quick, and 418 abstentions over 576 failed states. The assembler consumed exactly 60 deep units and 20 soup anchors once each, with 60 matched controls (57 exact-cell, two family/kind, and one kind/level).
- The all-policy cache bound 140 samples and 35,266 active target positions to the exact quick, deep, and soup models. Capability, anchor, and route-control prompt truncation were all zero.
- Training completed 20/20 updates with mean corrected top-k loss
0.05588. The held probe improved from0.04249→0.02281loss and0.83777→0.84112top-k overlap, so the frozen round gate passed. Probe entropy contracted about10.66%; as in prior full rounds, this is retained as a collapse-risk warning, not promoted into a post-hoc stop. - The round-2 bf16 merge receipt is
08136cf7e1a8b4b46b8ac6ffae3422c9f38737263fe1d86ab20adf698b0156b6. The tracked seed-43 receipt now records three completed rounds and remains deliberately in progress while round 3 runs; no capability conclusion exists. - Several long generation subprocesses span Git commits because unrelated confirmation/control hardening was checkpointed while the GPU remained live. The exact vLLM runner hash, package lock, model configuration, engine geometry, state/branch hashes, and token ledgers were unchanged and all registered engine checks passed. The commit-marker churn is provenance metadata, not a generation-protocol change.
2026-07-13 — seed-43 four-round integration passes
- Round 3 reached the exact 60-deep quota after two candidate batches, with 43 quick diagnostics and 281 abstentions. It froze 60 deep, 20 soup anchors, and 60 controls (55 exact-cell and five family/kind), with zero prompt truncation across every role.
- Training completed 20/20 consume-once updates with mean corrected loss
0.05130. Held-probe loss improved0.07297→0.04417and top-50 overlap improved0.83025→0.83288; the frozen round gate passed. Probe entropy contracted13.11%, retained as the same non-gating collapse-risk warning. - Seed 43 is terminal at four completed rounds with gate pass. Deep-route supply was 90/60/82/60 and mean losses were
0.05638/0.05172/0.05588/0.05130. The terminal merge receipt is4af497550de22d9bbafdd9de97dd95eabeb6b16b6fa9a7516bf78c4c719d6ecf. - The independent manifest→cache→trainer→adapter→merge audit passes across all four rounds; the tracked integration receipt hash is
885419b1fd8bafb4d16aa56369d91168e0dc0aca92416cc7a4361eeaad2eba11. This supports replication of route supply and optimizer stability only. It is not evidence of deployed capability gain; seed 44 and sealed comparison remain mandatory.
2026-07-14 — seed-44 four-round integration passes
- Seed 44 completed all four frozen integration rounds. Deep-route supply was
90/82/69/65; rounds 0 and 1 required three candidate batches and rounds 2 and 3 required two. Every round froze 60 deep capability units, 20 soup anchors, and 60 disjoint controls. Control matching was57/3,56/3/1,57/3, and54/6across exact-cell/family-kind/ kind-level tiers respectively. - All four rounds completed 20/20 consume-once updates with mean corrected losses
0.05674/0.05561/0.04284/0.05147. Held-probe loss improved in every round:0.08318→0.04540,0.05051→0.02258,0.06825→0.04500, and0.05601→0.02952. Top-50 overlap also increased in every round. - Probe entropy contracted
11.05%/9.53%/10.62%/7.55%. The registered full-round gate still passes, but the round-0 and round-2 contractions retain the material non-gating collapse-risk warning; no post-hoc stop is added. - The terminal merge receipt is
33ae673db2abda3bfee69f311f5d5d5b8e1bda29fb2c1b286b3adbe514d4ba00. The independent manifest→cache→trainer→adapter→merge audit passes across all four rounds; the tracked integration receipt hash isff329ebccdc888689b6d6c985a558e66a2385aaa701babf8724d61444428bf1f. - Three optimizer seeds now establish safe completion of the registered update and replicated fresh strict-deep route supply after round 0. They do not establish capability gain, causal routing, superiority to any comparison, retention, transfer, or composability; sealed confirmation remains mandatory.
2026-07-14 — confirmation model-byte boundary hardened before controls
- A fail-closed pre-control review found two related gaps: semantic controls authorization did not reauthenticate the frozen quick/deep/soup source checkpoints, and the prior confirmation path could recompute and adopt model bytes after authorization when it created global
ADMISSION. No controls authorization, admission, or confirmation output existed when found. model_provenance.pynow authenticates the committed source receipt at ancestor commit37dc74ef, the exact seven-file model root, the exhaustive weight/inference inventory, and only the frozen source or local tokenizer profile. Symlinked leaves/directories/ancestors, nested extras, non-regular files, and mutated/missing/extra config, generation, chat-template, tokenizer, receipt, or weight artifacts fail closed.- The semantic controls authorizer now seals one canonical 13-arm map: three sources, three primary seeds, three trained controls, three parameter soups, and the exact soup alias under sample-best-of-8 decoding. It recomputes this map immediately before no-clobber publication. Confirmation requires exact arm-map equality, rehashes all arms immediately before and after global
ADMISSION, and rehashes each selected arm beforeSTARTEDand after generation. Admission is built only from the authorized map. - The independent integration/control/benchmark audits and benchmark runner now use the same model authenticator. Future LoRA merges record the exhaustive inference inventory; legacy source and completed primary receipts remain admissible only because every byte matches a fixed canonical profile.
- All 209 experiment tests pass, including explicit mutation transitions after authorization and after admission. This is evidence-pipeline hardening only; it changes no treatment, gate, or capability conclusion.
2026-07-14 — non-advantage-route control arm completes (interim)
- The four-round full-prefix non-advantage-route arm completed 20/20 consume-once updates in every round. Mean corrected losses were
0.05393/0.05036/0.04990/0.04619; every frozen full-round gate passed. - Held-probe loss improved
0.06090→0.03392,0.04644→0.02432,0.04979→0.02781, and0.03674→0.02730. Top-50 overlap increased in all four rounds. Round-0 probe entropy contracted10.47%, retained as a non-gating collapse-risk warning; later contractions were7.79%,16.34%, and4.33%. - The full-prefix overlay reproduced the original matched mapping byte-for-byte in rounds 0, 2, and 3. Round 1 deterministically replaced the sole original state that violated zero-truncation eligibility; no training role was truncated. The terminal merge receipt is
99e4d3258f450173204466bd4a2b4f1dfadfc54d706008e6fc3944a5f7bd57f5. - This is an explicit in-progress checkpoint while wrong-teacher, off-policy SFT, and parameter controls run. The aggregate tracked controls receipt does not yet exist, so this arm is not admitted to confirmation and supports no causal or capability conclusion.
2026-07-14 — control-runtime recovery before off-policy merge
- All four wrong-teacher training rounds and merges completed. Off-policy SFT round 0 then completed 20/20 consume-once updates and passed its frozen round gate, but the parent orchestrator stopped before merge: the documented
python3entrypoint ran under the system interpreter while strengthened canonical off-policy replay lazily requiredtransformersfrom.venv. - This was an orchestration-environment failure, not a scientific stop. No off-policy merge or later round had started, and the complete round-0 adapter receipt was preserved for semantic replay rather than retrained.
- Every model stage now re-execs under the pinned
.venvbefore importing dependency-bearing validators. The guard preserves the exact arguments, accepts the normal virtual-environment Python symlink, and fails before stage work if the runtime is absent. The README documents this boundary and two regression tests cover re-exec and no-re-exec paths. - All 211 experiment tests pass after the fix. Resumption must first replay and validate the existing round-0 receipt under
.venv; this recovery changes no treatment, seed, target, update, or gate.
2026-07-14 — all matched controls complete and independently audit
- Resumption replayed the existing off-policy round-0 adapter under
.venv, validated it, and proceeded directly to merge without retraining. The other three off-policy rounds then completed normally. - All 12 trained-control rounds completed 20/20 consume-once updates and passed their frozen gates. Non-advantage MOPD mean corrected losses were
0.05393/0.05036/0.04990/0.04619; wrong-teacher losses were0.07040/0.06537/0.06047/0.06949. Probe loss improved and top-50 overlap non-decreased in every MOPD control round. - Off-policy SFT mean CEs were
0.10926/0.11021/0.09851/0.09942; all registered update gates passed and probe loss improved in every round. The frozen off-policy gate contains no top-k-overlap or CE threshold, so no MOPD criterion was applied post hoc. - The 25%/50%/75% deep parameter soups each applied 128/128 nonzero modules and recorded exhaustive inference-file inventories. Their receipt hashes are
aa42d8e67ee87f8cfd937404bf7c43daa5064483185e2fde72c20d3cb2f43d0d,1599289b9b83932b6d0a5553daa7907ca2b95a22139140f22e5020f0e6b5280a, and95b607b4e644f2236b1f01498101dac5a274e008ba1c1fae26e0133234feeb1b. - The tracked controls receipt passes and hashes to
103ef4cc0b24d7c10666b6f0adfcd4dfae4720415c7fbbc76b681ab79162640b. A separate authorization-path audit replayed every canonical ledger and reauthenticated all model bytes. This authorizes requesting sealed comparison; it is not a capability or causal-routing result.
2026-07-14 — semantic controls authorization sealed
- The no-clobber semantic authorizer independently replayed all prerequisite ledgers, reauthenticated every model byte, and sealed the exact 13-arm confirmation map at
709694b7d770b5cbb09afe8b932bba3891ab4fea39c54c625fc84c5da973072d. - The complete control-code inventory hashed to
0dff95e5f12847ca36435cad6bcbe752e97a67215968cebb68d52c5cd47efe54both immediately before and after publication. The authorization receipt hashes tof4a5456844adeafd39e2e4f2a8036ed9fff2c78830b2eab9d4a7bfa1300d2278. - The only licensed downstream action is sealed confirmation evaluation. Global
ADMISSION.jsonand every confirmation score remain absent at this boundary, so this receipt supports no capability, superiority, retention, or causal-routing claim.
2026-07-14 — sealed confirmation admitted; first arm started
- The live confirmation entrypoint reproduced the no-clobber semantic authorization exactly, then independently reauthenticated the full 13-arm model map before and after atomic global admission publication.
runs/confirmation/ADMISSION.jsonhashes to18c019e92fb6b7f7caed0b0f916b958d528b36b9a30607c2890e6b9385d0125d. It binds block seeds98700/98800, the exact authorized arm map, evaluator inventory, configuration, and authorization receipt.- Block-0 deep evaluation entered
STARTED; its external journal hashes toc1eb2878bf936d95b62885309257aa1c98e39bbfa9096f3e6a6cf01d3a2a32f1. No generated bundle or score exists at this in-progress checkpoint, so it changes no capability, comparison, retention, or routing conclusion.
2026-07-14 — attempt-1 deep transaction quarantined before score
- Block-0 deep completed 4,032 atom rows, 384 episode rows through 18 turns, and 19 contiguous inference-call bundles. Semantic finalization then failed closed before
scores.jsonwithconfirmation call journal output lacks a scored runner field; the terminalQUARANTINEDmarker hashes to7c93540429dc340c1b62d4cce9e5d2aa82fa3439e615d5ffb3ae4d5300e33580. - A key-presence-only audit found 6,879 journal outputs. The 1,392 outputs that carried
retained_thinking_token_idssatisfied the strict schema; the other 5,487 lacked only that field.VLLMRunner._ordinary_outputomitted it, whileharness._slimintentionally defaulted the absent optional evidence to[]. Thus the generated/scored projection and strict journal schema had diverged; model outputs were not malformed. - No prompt, gold, generated text, item score, aggregate score, or performance comparison was inspected. The entire transaction, original authorization, and admission are archived as attempt 1 and will not be reused. The failure receipt hashes to
2e645322ead3fbbdf58760849fe17def81fd12b62cdfa4b6c58808e24612ed41. - Recovery is limited to making the ordinary runner output satisfy the already registered strict schema without changing text or scoring, adding a direct regression, issuing fresh no-clobber authorization/admission, and rerunning both sealed blocks from an empty current tree. This is evidence-pipeline failure, not capability evidence or a scientific stop.
2026-07-14 — ordinary-output journal schema repaired
- The strict call-journal validator remains unchanged. The ordinary runner path now emits
retained_thinking_token_ids: [], exactly matching the scoring harness's pre-existing projection for a path that never constructs a forced-close continuation. The corrected runner hashes to1e065b9c3718e4d2353dc3215928b936ed3fdaeb0d1e04ce96f215d4c9331054. - The change does not alter model calls, sampled IDs, decoded text, prompt bytes, task seeds, token budgets, answer/action extraction, scores, engine geometry, or model artifacts. A direct regression invokes the naturally closed budget path and requires both retained and injected evidence fields.
- All 212 experiment tests pass, including the full call-journal semantic replay suite. Attempt 1 remains terminal and no archived byte will be reused. A fresh no-clobber authorization/admission, bound to this corrected source inventory, is required before any GPU rerun.
2026-07-14 — frozen recovery-review placement corrected
- The first fresh authorization request stopped immediately, before model hashing or output publication, because the post-quarantine review had been appended to preregistered
reports/design_review.md. The frozen-design audit correctly rejected its changed hash; no authorization file was created. - The original design review is restored byte-for-byte at its registered hash
cdeaad5b7bb363d0d650af6080d2d0be6c41d0873328e810965d017da271dd5b. The operational analysis now lives in the additive, non-frozenreports/confirmation_recovery_review.md. - Repository checks pass after the correction. This was a pre-authorization evidence-pipeline stop and changes neither design nor result.
2026-07-14 — corrected runtime receives fresh authorization
- Fresh no-clobber semantic authorization passed after independently replaying every integration/control ledger and reauthenticating all 13 arm models. The arm-map hash remains
709694b7d770b5cbb09afe8b932bba3891ab4fea39c54c625fc84c5da973072d; model selection and decoding are unchanged from attempt 1. - The corrected 56-file control inventory hashes to
690a5b5e345f7f4070f731eb69f7a6d9adf7f8148d4b4c07e8234cb8916250efboth before and after authorization and explicitly binds runner hash1e065b9c3718e4d2353dc3215928b936ed3fdaeb0d1e04ce96f215d4c9331054. The new authorization receipt hashes to2b9b86aa76bfb87169a2c70313f967f20c13a09e62fbab25069120e29f0ef9f1. - Fresh admission, raw output, and scores remain absent. This authorizes only a new empty-tree sealed campaign and contributes no performance evidence.
2026-07-14 — attempt-2 confirmation admitted from an empty live tree
- The live confirmation entrypoint reproduced the corrected no-clobber authorization exactly, independently reauthenticated all 13 arm models, and atomically published fresh
runs/confirmation/ADMISSION.jsonat hash6424b68d01420154d10b7a999332eb4b9d44fca3cad63cf7266f098b9d9c990e. - At this checkpoint, no external confirmation file, evaluator process, GPU allocation, generated row, or score existed. The parent was still performing its post-admission arm-byte recheck. This is in-progress provenance evidence only and changes no scientific conclusion.
- The post-admission check then passed and block-0 deep entered
STARTED; the external journal hashes toca44441a2784a79d314b7c359dde6f136617d6bf68301b9dd0741fe3325b8d38. No generated bundle or score existed when this start marker was recorded.
2026-07-14 — attempt-2 block-0 deep completes and validates
- Block-0 deep generated 4,032 atom rows and 384 episode rows through all 18 turns. The generated journal hashes to
adc322ff06f1c585653467c7f8b745e6bc89aad5103dbd31e29312cbad8ac09c; atom and episode raw files hash to80fe4abcb8f09fff268f514e4b9fc2cfb3718d566b537988a2fab50d46339754and2e5b0b467e9a543d468fc7759675c022b6c4b29cbd5cdf6e8109335003a8c150. - The unchanged strict call-journal validator passed, directly resolving the attempt-1 evidence-pipeline question.
COMPLETE.jsonhashes tod029202d1f11626bdf76ef6f6607b5e7033fc58584d852a83cc30da48dc6663aand binds score hashf6d7c0271aa2d7acdc04e1e62e54dfb79d7a49f244fe332e898b4b813937d1e6. - The parent accepted registered aggregates
0.580068(n=3,072) on the deep stratum and0.810029(n=1,344) on the quick stratum, with 4,261,790 sampled tokens. This is a single source-arm anchor, not treatment evidence; block-0 non-advantage evaluation started next with external journal hashb5b1a6c6b19d95630c066ba0767fbaa62f8627836a03deb8384ab71003c7286a.
2026-07-14 — block-0 non-advantage control completes
- The non-advantage control completed the same 4,032-atom/384-episode sealed geometry and passed strict journal validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to42b5c16414a6d3eb1c013990ea47cae02c132c3b983908023bccf107298eb947andc614b53218d0c46e89e9ebc185441b7bea6af5c6b364d8a8eda55acef79e0f3d; the score hashes tod3e7b57fb437c3ca4194b74f8e7f4fa63ab067d50e62188de8e07d6f6d7ba7d8. - Registered means are
0.565173deep and0.790951quick, respectively−0.014895and−0.019078versus the block-0 deep source anchor, with 4,468,793 sampled tokens. This is a one-block control/source comparison, not treatment evidence or a causal advantage-routing result. Off-policy SFT evaluation started next with external journal hashfbd64d2cd877e2e84a811337541e1d60de63a3d680ad8fad67fcf785e9db4e2e.
2026-07-14 — block-0 off-policy SFT control completes
- Off-policy SFT completed the sealed geometry and strict journal validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash tof865801c755fb2fc1ba2ff81d1dd4f780d432b99116b69986ecf06d535a8f8aeandb23d72356ab3cedf7794462d6bc6d403705eaa1b964eda4893ec263e5b5195de; the score hashes to44e8e830e0a05c5d903b0638fcc756ea19203b80044b26ce70948b5d6c5ae002. - Registered means are
0.577559deep and0.797585quick,−0.002509and−0.012444versus the deep source anchor, using 4,342,736 sampled tokens. It is+0.012386deep and+0.006634quick versus non-advantage, but remains one control on one block; treatment and replication conclusions are sealed. Primary seed 42 started next with external journal hashfc7fd5c948893412f06d181a647a45ff9b183b5f833d291089b046096acc9ee4.
2026-07-14 — block-0 primary seed 42 completes below source
- Primary seed 42 completed the sealed geometry and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash toa3ecc145f38c4413e27bd1f3b56bc868836129069dd647b30b6bdafd96159cafand104601605d2ad0b5c12f41947242989c2cfdd11d24dedd954abc0134cf955274; the score hashes to585f99d71141a70de1db609b827b767218068645d31db0f7396324152c232841. - Registered means are
0.577005deep and0.795225quick,−0.003063and−0.014804versus the deep source anchor, using 4,422,572 sampled tokens. It is also−0.000554deep and−0.002360quick versus off-policy. This is an unfavorable first treatment block, not a terminal conclusion: the frozen decision requires all treatment seeds, comparators, and both blocks. Primary seed 43 started next with external journal hash81047c1f3329eb71fd76dfa47a4a2c6dd87627c2bcc227761567b155d400d3ef.
2026-07-14 — block-0 primary seed 43 repeats negative deep sign
- Primary seed 43 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to32c006cfa1e970cf845b2b1d8af23d606a314f1ee09aeba49a1466a0721a2d95and44c7f6c239d00fb512f3c474ca20f711a7d85f39b3fd7f1607729a97caaa36bb; the score hashes to9ebf64444ce068a14de943d2c3c28c34e2dc567a23197e7307c93a029d42111e. - Registered means are
0.576097deep and0.804167quick,−0.003971and−0.005862versus the source, using 4,408,848 sampled tokens. The deep sign repeats seed 42's unfavorable result; seed 44 and block 1 remain required. Primary seed 44 started next with external journal hasha607b9b93f7c629aff92083f308c53cb0058e353f00a4ee7f2603bcd4e4082e2.
2026-07-14 — all three block-0 treatment seeds are below deep
- Primary seed 44 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to49ca7c8cfb9597b2b8ec8b047a82ce9de321f11cf323d695ff7d068d44b0c1afand2cb75d45ba30974e3457212001377804a951cb422ad2f62951326e752b8b9dc9; the score hashes tocf3021207260a30357df7dc52d74c1b75fb81a315a04d22fb8424f03dfff4a45. - Registered means are
0.572010deep and0.805422quick,−0.008058and−0.004607versus the source, using 4,393,570 sampled tokens. Seeds 42, 43, and 44 all have negative block-0 deep signs, so the frozen success condition is already unreachable. The preregistered campaign nevertheless requires all arms and both blocks for the terminal control ranking and receipt. - The block-0 quick source evaluation started next with external journal hash
0ab077980fc97ee8cc5481575a0059896f686735539903ea6634cb15f59b154d.
2026-07-14 — block-0 deep source also dominates quick source
- The quick source completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to8b826d1202add12808efd9951f964598b2f01bfe2775ae23b2abb6fe64621185anda51a444f0d467dfa6005fda65ddb80c62acfdb7e75acdd3c64cde3c488a2fb80; the score hashes to089bbdb35d9749cece3fe23bead1f3da25149c5409994d2ca1c64de4364ab08b. - Registered means are
0.529284deep and0.775684quick,−0.050784and−0.034344versus the deep source, using 4,773,735 sampled tokens. The deep source is therefore the better source on both block-0 strata. All three MOPD seeds lie between the two sources but fail to improve the better source. - The frozen soup comparator started next with external journal hash
b2ca6c3aeb2348510d78c99ba7efefe417684a14e5ae946e5a11316fbedb699d.
2026-07-14 — block-0 MOPD does not dominate its soup initialization
- The immutable 40/60 soup completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to243d7fb8d00b0ccb430811cdb9017650395139dcdf0504eb630716adc1728da8and742f388e187847f1e74654a855cd3529cc6145cf392f8aa676dc63b8942251ca; the score hashes to57dce804f32f7e0c2c0c18b23cb170075698eb9216587a34ce8818cbc7eb090c. - Registered means are
0.571744deep and0.811128quick,−0.008324and+0.001099versus the deep source, using 4,392,180 sampled tokens. Primary seeds 42/43/44 are only+0.005261/+0.004353/+0.000266above soup on deep and are−0.015903/−0.006961/−0.005706below it on quick. The treatment does not dominate its own initialization on this block. - Soup25 started next with external journal hash
4bd39562939e2d3b726ce5221e22370fed9f2accdb6ddee8b702a9c558a8c2b6.
2026-07-14 — block-0 soup25 is dominated by the initialization
- Soup25 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to777084b5a15287b83302d20a6b40ba828c4a72f9276056e3eebf6d1ca04b065aandf98a8d5e6581253c68b2e900f23cb53d1e740aff27ef9181ef6729fe842e0a28; the score hashes to574617cd1646ec8d00f7cb3d6861d3c89a6a892ecb454d2c79d08d2069bf3487. - Registered means are
0.543311deep and0.801212quick,−0.036757and−0.008817versus the deep source, using 4,693,690 sampled tokens. Soup25 is also−0.028434deep and−0.009916quick versus the immutable 40/60 initialization, so it is dominated on both strata. - Soup50 started next with external journal hash
b55a6675fea796006dc99e44bf7b24f42b7344f6ceae11d163c568d260fd544d.
2026-07-14 — block-0 soup50 traces the same Pareto trade
- Soup50 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash toda8d590fadceff3aa4403da29d1b60aca3b99427133826e937cafe072ac0230dand8c2e437777096f6e024a6a65ac08f6a0e661e3abc853803fba9fa91412fb4e02; the score hashes to9226553f6189d59fbac461c8eb4faf8e6299bc22c941210ef2b9195fb2effafa. - Registered means are
0.562536deep and0.812542quick,−0.017532and+0.002514versus the deep source, using 4,494,796 sampled tokens. Relative to the immutable 40/60 initialization, soup50 is−0.009208deep and+0.001415quick. Every MOPD seed is higher on deep and lower on quick, so neither checkpoint class dominates the other. - Soup75 started next with external journal hash
4e2c0077e11ab05405721899382e64609824af62146372d229ce4c1ede874263.
2026-07-14 — block-0 soup75 matches or dominates MOPD
- Soup75 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash tof7257cc5f275aed3aaabfcd1058578471a1c9778d1b5e5b02913a10bd8467d8aande9b38a1aa7194347df551857c49ee3499bceb1c850db6bdcecf166d54f61fd93; the score hashes to90ec218905010e0469cf306e2b5bb901d06d5853334959515c98745bde74adad. - Registered means are
0.576786deep and0.807131quick,−0.003282and−0.002897versus the deep source, using 4,332,931 sampled tokens. Soup75 dominates primary seeds 43 and 44 on both strata. Seed 42 is only+0.000219deep and−0.011906quick versus soup75. - The 40/60 soup best-of-eight sample-more comparator started next with external journal hash
f085310f00e629c80f4fd387aa44a077b9e6ae34dac133136029ed866d6d1745.
2026-07-15 — block-0 sample-more decisively beats MOPD
- Soup best-of-eight completed its sealed 4,032-atom/384-episode transaction.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to64f2c7b8d15bce5911308f8662d2d884252fa4351fe9b46b6b285ffcdcc74740and1c6c4656d1ed7f85c9551e3c534bfd82f2cedaee1ab762ad40ab9eb17822f4af; the score hashes tod2270cde58d691ba19ec80f7c0796438805b117589755cc8a796afb9abc34a80. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.770908deep and0.946205quick, using 35,600,602 sampled tokens. The frozen equal-cell projection is0.770805deep,0.946205quick, and0.858505joint. Seed 42 trails by−0.180246,−0.150980, and−0.165613, respectively. - The interim values recorded for earlier arms are direct score-file summaries; the terminal analyzer uses equal cell macros. Replaying that frozen projection confirms seeds 42/43/44 trail deep on the block-0 deep macro by
−0.000481/−0.005426/−0.004869, so the already-unreachable success rule is not caused by row weighting. - Wrong-teacher started as the last block-0 arm with external journal hash
13913bd80710ef29a2b141718bf1fa71c4395bd54c92981fea6a6151c0d5125b.
2026-07-15 — block 0 completes with a small teacher-identity signal
- Wrong-teacher completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to5cef623a5b72921d272251a41ea153b60d0f69fb0ecc365324eb6be8465d7c0eand5a1469de05795e5aa592a0c8ea55ed63da2d594b66aea6a3022602d4782d6a41; the score hashes to2c41e25dac43862cd7216cb6a92e66b67c0b3940656c954b05790e4e04a744e7. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.571148deep and0.788833quick, using 4,446,949 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.587505deep,0.788833quick, and0.688169joint. Seed 42 exceeds them by only+0.003054,+0.006392, and+0.004723, respectively. - The correct teacher therefore matters directionally on block 0, but the effect is much smaller than the treatment's deficits to the deep source, immutable soup, soup75, and sample-more. This cannot rescue the frozen gate.
- Block 1 began with the deep source; its external
STARTEDjournal hashes to20a2516780884ee672aa21f1e684ebe000770942e18d34f8954ac38ebcef07c8.
2026-07-15 — block-1 deep source anchor completes
- Deep completed the second sealed block.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to565e023ab8854e70ea0de6093a80c13b0cf60688fe17bab1c121d2213238711eand9db347c86f5de9a782a5f41425b11d061a7d8f88f423cbf0a3ede36c59553510; the score hashes to0a6c94de3f1a04126b4fa6c5d2d1e21ffa0e09636320093c7b71d36dc36a1678. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.584024deep and0.811023quick, using 4,228,153 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.600187deep,0.811023quick, and0.705605joint. This is a source anchor only. - Block-1 non-advantage started next with external journal hash
e3951bead0ccf17014cf1479f258dfd0b7e68f055eab5eb5419d737c7724d77f.
2026-07-15 — block-1 non-advantage remains below deep
- Non-advantage completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to9d6460a6ae69b1fb8333cac05992b8e5a0c6b8617ecab7cb94200e7cd3841863and6c85dac0a1464cb729be4f551de2964267aac313652b0cf6be6a7d26a8833bda; the score hashes toa596c3541ab9816c15cd7dd8e3fc1f58c7c0845ccb2c62aad7c6218a79930e17. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.578032deep and0.795058quick, using 4,369,088 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.596955deep,0.795058quick, and0.696006joint, respectively−0.003232,−0.015965, and−0.009599versus deep. - The non-advantage control is below deep on both blocks. Off-policy SFT started next with external journal hash
4a2626981d694d6f2740a138b3d4e4a62a69ab6feb835b4b0e4d680de20c29bd.
2026-07-15 — block-1 off-policy trades deep for quick
- Off-policy SFT completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to388288924eedd4b824354351d9427988ee91d675261f31b762e91024f582f5b8and7a5dfe15cd57303a96514a9a912e9f9ff072f31c2109fdbfb7e52bfc9dd9400c; the score hashes tob3a3cacd73fd8e42cfee98d2674dd7c413fbca479c88aed41f854cd9718d1edc. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.583994deep and0.800776quick, using 4,282,251 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.603801deep,0.800776quick, and0.702289joint:+0.003614,−0.010247, and−0.003316versus deep. It is a small Pareto trade rather than a source improvement. - Primary seed 42 started next with external journal hash
be153537b495033edafb9c84d808bb67378bb1d3fca97f3e73aac268d3069bdf.
2026-07-15 — block-1 seed 42 independently trails deep
- Primary seed 42 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to96475fa27b93709f939ac37571de8759495ff7f2cabf9b1b73f0b55303d5db9cande2be8c88c46aff569d48fbfca32fba7f4dc1332771ff4dce81579c91eef136a5; the score hashes to240cab29fe579e99e40b6a0f1b72b8fce22574ddf2780167a81416c01496892b. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.575202deep and0.806729quick, using 4,404,223 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.592386deep,0.806729quick, and0.699558joint, respectively−0.007800,−0.004294, and−0.006047versus deep. - Seed 42 therefore has a negative deep-cell sign versus deep on both sealed blocks. This independently reinforces the frozen stop while the remaining arms continue for the terminal receipt and control ranking.
- Primary seed 43 started next with external journal hash
62cca0f1c558cccff5f7a490aee4472188f167bbfd55f170b0aa989f638046a9.
2026-07-15 — block-1 seed 43 makes a tiny non-dominating trade
- Primary seed 43 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to22a67d4b264ac64a20a5ba9a38080f43c23ba29ea1402ad8798f939917c33b70and58916aab2b52bfeee0ce44043a49b6a2f613f57406f115e485aa74a8086ce72a; the score hashes toaf371468fef92b97cc931408722e8eac68152b052e5d1f6d875847633124d674. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.582282deep and0.806832quick, using 4,367,189 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.601865deep,0.806832quick, and0.704349joint, respectively+0.001678,−0.004191, and−0.001256versus deep. - The tiny deep-cell gain is paid for by quick loss and does not dominate the source. It also misses the registered positive block-1 joint direction versus deep required of the replication seed.
- Primary seed 44 started next with external journal hash
394c423432ad25f86e7270de2f896ce60b87bf8b6b2b2565eb72f477e832381f.
2026-07-15 — all block-1 treatment seeds fail source domination
- Primary seed 44 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to34ac9f0c0f804fc094f4aad024f6b239bceb5aca04fa09a28ad4c8342bd9daf2andf71411e8742c022c9b000c7c7cbaba08e592770599fe1cb4eb8dc76fffc44b1f; the score hashes tob6e6e887e2cf3ae230a0ee6fbb4ddb8286f68a1fcb31681306af593a76260485. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.571220deep and0.807583quick, using 4,359,813 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.590461deep,0.807583quick, and0.699022joint, respectively−0.009726,−0.003440, and−0.006583versus deep. - All three treatments fail to dominate deep on block 1: seeds 42/44 trail on both strata and seed 43 buys only a tiny deep-cell gain with quick and joint losses. Remaining arms rank controls; they cannot reopen the frozen gate.
- The quick source started next with external journal hash
8f441c4df5e781a713415b6190ee181c865276a3b0e3e6ffe906c62ae4853ab6.
2026-07-15 — deep is the better source on both sealed blocks
- Quick completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to2d4d6539f4ce0636ef2eade37b64b8d9a778c2525acb2cbe594b5d138deb9a65and40d777ee9d8054c66a4805d5c0b3ef6fb00cb88f1f712b6f932f614836c36786; the score hashes toe820adcc5728e05994c0a2190e267701833f98263745bb4b3a5c23deb892ad48. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.529900deep and0.777722quick, using 4,736,614 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.551467deep,0.777722quick, and0.664595joint, respectively−0.048720,−0.033301, and−0.041010versus deep. - Deep is the better source on both strata in both blocks. The treatments beat quick on block 1 but do not beat deep, locating them between or near their sources rather than beyond the source frontier.
- The immutable 40/60 soup started next with external journal hash
8b6f61cdf306d8d74ff73bf7960fe7f043a1fa5016c625543f91ea976c379b8f.
2026-07-15 — treatment beats initialization locally but not across blocks
- The immutable soup completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash toa4d7ecd6f0fee02e30e6e844f223cf8f1b3b6ed6d63ecd1cf79d1bac2923fae3and46768d2d95411f2831623803eaf84dd2ab8783b1432bab36fde3dae4a3995097; the score hashes tocefed360bea80ec79731ca3b891d49ea391bfa2a9a3130a020e95185dcaa6536. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.569971deep and0.800865quick, using 4,363,638 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.589461deep,0.800865quick, and0.695163joint, respectively−0.010726,−0.010158, and−0.010442versus deep. - Seeds 42/43/44 beat soup on both block-1 strata, with joint gains
+0.004394/+0.009185/+0.003859. This block-local update signal does not replicate block 0, where no treatment dominated soup, and it remains below the better-source frontier. - Soup25 started next with external journal hash
8dfbec59f535168b34097f2f56ea25237dc5f19f9a1bdbfddb6aea8c13f6d698.
2026-07-15 — soup25 is dominated on both sealed blocks
- Soup25 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to1fdfef844ceedcf74bbd48667835b805e2c8c24e32848959951ab2cf59c29a07and36957d441d8df25fd03e68dd8eaa2de5b1bdb8e885dac7d223f76f10eb2f9d22; the score hashes to6c0d19733ad9a3dbba9c7b0364276625c6b74b7e5fda181d28e3ccc740a76d00. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.543777deep and0.792800quick, using 4,688,835 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.562769deep,0.792800quick, and0.677784joint, respectively−0.026693,−0.008066, and−0.017379versus the immutable soup. - Soup25 is dominated by the initialization on both sealed blocks and cannot explain the treatment checkpoints; every block-1 treatment dominates it.
- Soup50 started next with external journal hash
fd036a60b739b9b3bf484956de8f0ab01d657bbe563824412ea8989cc3203afe.
2026-07-15 — soup50 is dominated on block 1
- Soup50 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to4e57dcf508c7216435eecc074aee79a8657b7f48d987a5e65a7756b13fa0a47eand2158d5451c2df2412c9b2431ad76b97b3e6a19633644c6162774fef309e5803d; the score hashes to58674e67b7bfa0ddd9d7fb65668bb9ae0e8565c3573832311a2b2673b016eded. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.565327deep and0.795188quick, using 4,451,128 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.586316deep,0.795188quick, and0.690752joint, respectively−0.003145,−0.005677, and−0.004411versus the immutable soup. - Soup50 is dominated by the initialization and by all three treatments on both block-1 strata. Unlike block 0's soup50 Pareto trade, this point adds no frontier explanation for the treatment checkpoints.
- Soup75 started next with external journal hash
c9ff00e7325bff53b964cfd2ce556336a187e2e3036fc80aa75e5cb5a0395460.
2026-07-15 — soup75 exceeds the primary on block 1
- Soup75 completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash to55d92933db0da2e9de7e16bc5474f21d88c4f33cb3ce38e773706cc30ffc0b07and8876a7bde424166d46a6e3e0f37d11ee1333f7c25fa5ec5bb6a38d3ec77af8d2; the score hashes to7367f35384ec5f50e7d02ba1d7a5f30ce2fde6390f8e6ca8bc0ad86369dc0682. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.576310deep and0.807503quick, using 4,289,527 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.595053deep,0.807503quick, and0.701278joint, respectively+0.005592,+0.006638, and+0.006115versus the immutable soup. - Soup75 beats primary seed 42 by
+0.002667deep,+0.000775quick, and+0.001721joint on block 1. Together with its block-0 joint advantage, ordinary interpolation exceeds the registered primary on both blocks. Seed 43 trades higher deep for lower quick; soup75 is also+0.002256joint versus seed 44. - Soup best-of-eight started next with external journal hash
092c63c98849093b209da1a9089aee7a0f805d978286f2c39bef30af730553fe.
2026-07-15 — block-1 sample-more decisively wins again
- Soup best-of-eight completed its sealed transaction.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash toa7b79d4bb34a98788c8d19272e9421ba74cbc12985de95d0a1f5f3f43dd89371and386c0587218badb42833b3ede837a9795874985c1dda0fea2a1830c76e1e1e07; the score hashes toc74e6f2f4225b220f99567aa666f9281310d7e492d17ad2552c2cd18bfd6c75e. - Direct item-weighted means are
0.780596deep and0.957211quick, using 35,135,000 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.787636deep,0.957211quick, and0.872423joint. These exceed seed 42 by+0.195249,+0.150482, and+0.172865, and exceed the deep source by+0.187449,+0.146187, and+0.166818. - Averaged across both sealed blocks, sample-more scores
0.779220deep,0.951708quick, and0.865464joint. It beats seed 42 by+0.187748,+0.150731, and+0.169239, and the deep source by+0.183607,+0.141182, and+0.162394. The matched-compute loss is therefore large, replicated, and not a weighting artifact. - Wrong-teacher started as the final confirmation arm with external journal hash
7f71ae4083bb45f1bda0c2148b0f9e061ce67dddd2446e7735bf222fb82959a5.
2026-07-15 — terminal confirmation rejects capability installation
- Wrong-teacher completed sealed generation and strict validation.
GENERATED.jsonandCOMPLETE.jsonhash toa6315632da88d74deaf1b6c90958b60e4cc6139fc81f04224b9b9be2b895d365and38357e20c5a7a8bae8110e44c928763fa0340b9c8f9245019427bcbf884d989a; the score hashes to2667a17fe7395c6296a35b74d22396a94bfa724e1f675c219e2b298f322aa7ea. - Its direct item-weighted means are
0.568835deep and0.795695quick, using 4,408,929 sampled tokens. Equal-cell macros are0.591619deep,0.795695quick, and0.693657joint. Seed 42 beats it by+0.005901joint in block 1 and+0.005312pooled, with one-sided 95% LCB+0.000099. - The terminal manifest hashes to
aeedc23524fa81e92ffb9de4e05829e897f64ca2a5fb53c0d6af364f87aadfdf. The frozen analyzer authenticated all 26 arm-block score sets, passed every protocol check, and produced analysis hashfaa1ab0d5f5af16ac252cc795ab98913bd5cc2e656040e2701e7c2b90018cdd3. - Primary seed 42 has pooled joint deltas
−0.006845versus deep (one-sided 95% LCB−0.012839),−0.001300versus soup,−0.001872versus off-policy SFT,−0.003706versus soup75, and−0.169239versus soup best-of-eight (LCB−0.175468). Seeds 43/44 are also negative versus deep by−0.003450/−0.005660pooled joint. All source-stratum domination cells fail. - Seed 42 does beat quick (
+0.033284joint), non-advantage MOPD (+0.005619), the visible router (+0.010066), and wrong-teacher (+0.005312). These controls establish that routing and teacher identity contain directional signal, not that the update crosses the source frontier. - Retention passes its
0.02regression ceiling. Untouched transfer improves by+0.015625onbrineworkand+0.010590onspindle. These successes do not rescue the capability gate. - The analyzer exited with the preregistered negative code 4 and emitted
stop_before_benchmark_cli. No benchmark file, content, authorization, or run was opened. The experiment is terminal and finished. - Strategic read: direct-bf16 deployment-parity microtraining with an explicit merge-survival/source/interpolation/sample-more gate is now prerequisite to more MOPD. Cross-fitted direct advantages, adaptive allocation, and a third untouched block remain necessary for two-teacher integration, but are not sufficient until the causal update kernel survives deployment.
Data files 1
Result tables and metrics copied from the experiment folder — preview inline or open the raw file.
runs/smoke/summary.json3.1 kB
Reproduce
Smoke test
python3 experiments/qwen35_4b_deep_advantage_mopd/scripts/run.py --smokeFull run
Run explicit stages in README order; every stage verifies the immutable preregistration and prior machine-readable gate.Run steps are documented inside the experiment folder (README and scripts).